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全球匯市的新動向

發布:2017-12-15 19:41 來源: 《中國外匯》2017年第24期 作者:沈建光

全球匯市的新動向

New Trends in the Global Foreign Exchange Market

/沈建光

By Shen Jianguang

9月以來,影響全球金融市場的經濟與政治事件層出不窮,匯市處于明顯的震蕩態勢。預計當前及未來一段時間內,很難在全球找到一個明顯強勢或者弱勢的貨幣,美元、歐元、日元、英鎊乃至人民幣,均將大概率處于雙向波動區間。展望未來,左右全球匯率波動的主要因素有以下三方面。

Since September, global financial markets have been buffeted by a steady stream of unanticipated political and economic developments. The foreign exchange market has been no exception. It is now difficult to state unequivocally which currency is strong and which is weak. Moreover, this uncertain state of affairs could hold true for some time. In general, it is likely that the US dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen, the British pound and even the renminbi will move sideways in two-way range trading. Looking forward, there are three main factors influencing global exchange rate movements.

其一,經濟超預期的反彈情況。今年以來,全球經濟積極向好,歐、美、日等發達經濟體以及中國經濟均出現了超預期增長。特別是歐洲經濟,呈現了強勁的復蘇態勢,時隔八年增速首次超過美國,支持前三季度歐元強勢升值。9月中旬以來,美國經濟也利好不斷:盡管存在颶風影響,但三季度美國GDP初值仍然達到了3%的超預期水平,加之稅改利好的推動,美元指數表現更為突出。

First, the global economy has rebounded more than expected. Since the beginning of this year, the global economy has been making good progress. Developed economies in Europe, as well as the US, Japan and others, in addition to China, have recorded unexpected growth. In particular, the European economy showed a strong recovery trend, and its growth rate surpassed that of the US for the first time in more than eight years. That supported the strong appreciation of the euro over the first three quarters of the year. Since mid-September, the US economy has seen positive growth. Despite the impact of devastating hurricanes, the initial reading of US gross domestic product in the third quarter rose 3%, which is above expectations. Coupled with the prospect of tax reform, the US dollar index was relatively firm.

中國的表現同樣超出預期,前三季度整體保持6.9%的增長,表明中國經濟韌勁增強和回旋余地增大。除了傳統的基建和房地產起到一定的支撐作用,服務業的快速發展,以及在互聯網、移動支付、新能源等帶動下的經濟新動能也作用明顯。

China’s economic performance surpassed expectations as well, and overall growth came in at 6.9% in the first three quarters, indicating that China’s economy is becoming more resilient. In addition to the traditional economic drivers of infrastructure and real estate, the rapid growth of the service industry, the Internet, mobile payments and new energy played a significant role in driving the economic expansion.

可以看到,今年全球經濟回暖以及各國經濟的積極表現超出早前市場預期,為本國貨幣走勢提供了支持。未來各國經濟增長是否可持續將成為左右其匯率波動的關鍵因素之一。

The global economic rebound this year and the stronger performance of various other key economies have created momentum for a number of currencies. The sustainable development of the economic growth of various countries in the future will be one of the key factors affecting these exchange rate fluctuations.

其二,政治穩定性前景。政治風險對于近兩年全球匯率走勢的影響巨大,而筆者對美元走強在未來能否持續的疑慮也主要來自于政治方面。Second, there are greater expectations of political stability. Political risk had a major impact on global exchange rate movements over the past two years. The author believes that political uncertainties may yet undermine the strength of the US dollar.

112日,美國眾議院公布了稅改法案的詳細內容,但稅改前景仍引發多方質疑。其原因如下:第一,對跨國公司積累的海外收益征收最高12%的稅負高于此前特朗普的建議,預計這對推動境外利潤回流的作用將非常有限;第二,“淘汰”遺產稅也被“在數年內逐步推進”所替代,慢于早前特朗普的承諾;第三,盡管公司稅率從35%削減至20%,一些商業團體仍反對強烈,其能否在國會獲得通過存在變數;第四,從長期來看,能否在經濟增長中彌補減稅帶來的赤字增加仍具不確定性。除此以外,通俄門調查的步步緊逼,使得特朗普未來的執政前景并不十分明朗,或許會對美元形成一定的沖擊。

On November 2, the US House of Representatives announced details of the tax reform bill. Two weeks later the bill was approved. However, the prospect of tax reform remains a public concern, behind which the reasons are as follows. First, the tax burden on multinational corporations accumulating overseas profits is up to 12%, which is higher than that of President Trump’s past suggestions. It is expected that the bill will have a very limited effect in promoting the return of corporate profits parked overseas. Second, the bill would substantially raise the threshold for payment of inheritance tax. It will ultimately abolish the tax though it will delay the starting date to 2024. Third, some business groups are opposed to the bill, despite a cut in corporate tax rates from 35% to 20%, and this could be a substantial obstacle to passage. Fourth, in the long run, whether the deficit increase caused by tax cuts can be offset by revenue from greater economic growth remains uncertain. In addition, the ongoing investigation of Russia gate could jeopardize the Trump administration, and this may have an impact on the dollar.

歐洲方面,早前的德國極右勢力成為德國第三大政黨,以及最近西班牙加泰羅尼亞地區的分裂事件等風險,導致歐元在近一段時間出現下跌。不過,最近形勢似乎有所好轉:西班牙中央政府強勢接管加泰羅尼亞地區,分裂勢頭得到控制;英國方面則暗示,將就脫歐談判做出妥協,以推進談判進程。如果未來歐洲政治風險能夠進一步降低,有望支持歐元再度出現階段性上漲。

On the European front, the euro has been pressured somewhat by the German far-right forces have emerged as the third-largest political party in that country. Meanwhile, the pro-independence sentiment in the Spanish region of Catalonia has also unsettled markets. However, it seems that the situation has improved somewhat since the Spanish central government took direct administrative control over Catalonia, briefly slowing the slide towards independence. As for Britain's Brexit talks, London has shown some flexibility amid domestic concerns over a "hard Brexit," but the crunch is yet to come.  If political risk in Europe can be further reduced, the euro is expected to experience another staged advance.

中國的政治領導力得到加強。十九大給出了未來五年甚至三十年施政綱領和藍圖,對中國經濟發展提出了新的要求:國際方面,更加注重國際規則的制定與發揮全球影響力;國內方面,從以往過度追求經濟發展速度,向更高質量的增長以及更加平衡的分配轉變。在此背景下,去杠桿可能會加速推進,未來的經濟政策可能會更加注重收入分配問題、環境問題以及房地產問題的解決。

In China, the political leadership has been strengthened. The 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China has drafted a blueprint for the economy over the next five years and further into the future, stating new requirements for the nation's economic development. In the international arena, more attention is being paid to China's role in the formulation of international rules and the exertion of its global influence. In the domestic arena, the emphasis has shifted to higher quality growth rather than growth itself. In this context, the process of deleveraging may be accelerated. Economic policies in the future may pay more attention to dealing with the issues of income distribution, environmental protection and real estate.

其三,全球貨幣政策收緊的態勢。今年以來,全球央行加快了貨幣政策緊縮的步伐。而未來,寬松貨幣政策退出的快慢,將成為影響匯率走勢的關鍵。近期歐元的下跌就與歐央行沒有超預期縮表,以及退出量化寬松的政策偏鴿派有關;而美聯儲方面極有可能于12月開啟的年內第三次加息,或成為短期內支持美元上漲的重要因素。

Third, global monetary policy has shifted as major central banks move ahead with monetary tightening. In the future, the pace of the withdrawal from quantitative easing monetary policy will be the key to influencing exchange rate movements. The recent downward pressure on the euro stems from the expected shrinking of the European Central Bank's balance sheet and the withdrawal from quantitative easing. It is also likely that in December the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for the third time this year. This could buoy the dollar in the near term.

然而,加息之后,美元是否能持續走強仍存在疑問。過去兩年,每年年底美聯儲加息之后,美元都在第二年上半年不升反跌。此外,考慮到將在明年上任的新美聯儲主席鮑威爾相對鴿派,其對美元的影響也是中性偏弱的。

However, whether the US dollar can continue to rise after the year-end interest rate hike is doubtful. In the last two years the Federal Reserve raised interest rates at the year-end, but the dollar declined in the first half of the following year. In addition, it is more likely that Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve board member who is slated to become chairman next year, will maintain a dovish stance on monetary policy. That could have a neutral or slightly negative effect on the dollar.

中國方面,今年以來的整體貨幣政策已經比去年明顯收緊,去杠桿也導致金融市場利率明顯提升。在十九大之后,決策層對去杠桿的重視再度提升,這也預示著在全球寬松貨幣政策退出的大背景下,中國貨幣政策仍將保持中性偏緊的態勢,以深化前期去杠桿的努力。

In China, monetary policy has clearly tightened since the beginning of this year. Deleveraging has also led to a marked increase in interest rates in domestic financial markets. At the 19th Communist Party Congress, policy makers stressed the need for more deleveraging. That indicated that amid a global withdrawal from quantitative easing, China's monetary policy will maintain a neutral to slightly tighter posture in order to deepen the initial stage of the deleveraging program.

總而言之,近期各國貨幣匯率走勢基本取決于多方力量的對比。預計年底之前,美元匯率將處于一個震蕩波動的區間,全球范圍內短期也很難找到一個絕對強勢的貨幣。從今后幾年來看,筆者認為,美元仍將整體弱勢;歐元對美元還有升值的空間;人民幣將呈雙向波動態勢,中間值在目前6.5左右的水平。

All in all, the recent trends of exchange rates in various countries basically depend on the interaction of a number of forces. It is expected that by the end of the year, the dollar will be volatile. It is difficult to find an absolutely strong currency in the world in the short term. In the coming few years, the author believes that the dollar will generally remain weak. There is still room for appreciation of the euro against the dollar, and the renminbi will be fluctuating around its current parity level of around 6.5 to the dollar.

作者系瑞穗證券亞洲公司董事總經理、首席經濟學家

The author is managing director and chief economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd.

 

 

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